So is the world coming to an end?
Not really. Neither is humanity, and not even civilisation.
Summer returns every year, rain falls now and then, crops grow. There is food in the shops.
The oceans will not engulf us. Wildfires, storms and flooding is not that bad… things like these has happened all through the centuries. Covid was less lethal than the old plagues. Wars come and go and do not spread as they did before. We still have old fashioned vaccines functioning, keeping child deaths low. Our antibiotics still works. Inflation is bareable for most. A clear majority of us has a smartphone and are adequatly entertained. The western world heath care systems reach most of the citizens.
OK…Species die out at unnatural speeds, but the average person don´t see much of that. We ARE heading for warmer climate and dying ecosystems… crops may be threatened. But its not in our face really yet. Plastic is everywhere. So is toxic chemicals. And the so called renewables and the techno optimist transition will not be able to sustain the comfort levels of today.
Human fertility rates are going down, both by less competent eggs and sperms, but also by choice. We make less babies. The population overshoot, came and is going. Scientist Hans Rosling was early to explained how.
Demography is the big thing now – in mainstream debate. Geopolitical analysts like Peter Zeihan cant stop talking about it.
We will be swomped, not by rising sea water levels, but by ”old people” (yeck). The pension systems will collapse, so will the health care systems. Its the younger people that produce growth, by working and paying tax and by consuming. It is they that keep the global industry and trade routes open. The economic system needs a certain volume.
So the state is starting to ask us to make more babies – for the motherland. To save humanity!
Bullshit. We need more babies to save the growth economy. If the market goes too small certain production will not be ECONOMICALLY sustainable. Group this with resources getting harder to extract and inflation will flabbergast us.
There will be huge ripples all through society. Economic system will have to rebuild itself, because the debt-monster will finally catch up with us and eat us all. The system can not be repaired infinitly. And when that collapse come, all rich people will already have move from cash to owning soil and have a place far away from the riots.
This is the main collapse, after that heatwaves will sweep in and ecosystems will fail…. and many of the unborn babies will be very happy that they where not born.
We ARE getting better at extracting oil and gas, so the 15% annual reduction in stocks will not be felt just yet. And when industrial global trade collapse and that what Nate Hagens call ”the great simplification” happens – we will not have an economic market that can sustain a high level technology. We will not be ABLE to extract more fossil fuels. Neither technically and especially not economically.
We will be mining coal again – it is simpler. Even the romans could do it.
Speaking of the roman empire (that did not collapse – rather wither away) – the so called Rome-club and their collapse graph has now shown to be wrong. Or at least there is a delay – we may see those graphs turning down 5-10 years later, ergo; 2030-2040. It will be ”bumpy” as Nate Hagens say while hoping the system to bend instead of break. (Yeah, good luck with that – thats not how history play out and that is why he seems to live on a farm feeding ducks).
So how fast will AI solve all problems and do all work for us and we can lean back and have 4 hour work days? Will Never happen. As it did not change anything for the workers with any other technical innovation. It will as usual eradicate certain occupations. The increased productivity will increase profits for the owners of the AI.
And as more effective fossil engines leads to MORE driving so will AI have similar affect.
As AI supports us and simplifies for us and increase productivity it WILL lead to increased economic activity, increased consuming… a speed up of climate change and ecosystem collapse.
No one will stop using fossil fuel. Neither nations or city states (when the borders can not be maintained politically). Because the one that first stops using fossil will be ”eaten” by the others. Oil is too powerful.
The electric cars are not going to save us, since the renewable sector is so dependent on fossil. The EV´s was just something designed to save the automotive industries. Another product to sell within the growth economy system.
To fully transition to electricity there would be needed so much minerals in so short time that…. that…. well so many mines can not be started before things already are breaking apart… the economy…. the ecosystems…. the ”climate”.
The sooner the demography and economy collapses the higher chance for some of nature to be saved from the industrious human.
So the answer to the state of the collapse, is… it is ongoing, in different speeds in different locations on the planet.
Get ready for deglobalization.
Kollapsologen är ett kollektiv av skribenter som tillsammans skapar en civilisationskritisk blogg som resonerar kring frågor som: klimatförändring, kollaps, omställning, prepping, ekonomisk recession, hot mot demokratin, hot mot välfärdssamhället, matförsörjning, ekologi, energibrist, fossila bränslen, krig, geopolitik, svält, migration, samhällskollaps e t c.
Vad är kollapsologi? Hur stor är risken för en samhällskollaps? Hur kan en kollaps kunna komma att se ut? Hur kan civilisationen se ut efter olika kollapser?
